Confidence Limits for the Ratio of Two Binomial Proportions Based on Likelihood Scores: Non-Iterative Method

The interval estimation of the ratio of two binomial proportions based on the score statistic is superior over other methods. Iterative algorithms for calculating the approximate confidence interval have been provided by, e.g., KOOPMAN (1984, Biometrics 40:513–517) and GART and NAM (1988a, Biometrics 44:323–338). This note presents the analytical solutions for upper and lower confidence limits in a closed form and gives examples for numerical illustration. The non-iterative method is generally more desirable than the iterative method.     

Dietary exposure of Finnish children to heavy metal mixture – a cumulative assessment

A preliminary assessment of the cumulative exposure to heavy metals among Finnish preschool children is reported. Cadmium, lead, arsenic,and mercury affect many of the same organs in the human body. The effects are mostly caused by oxidative stress or disruption of enzyme function. The cumulative effects of the heavy metals on the central nervous system and on the kidneys are determined based on national concentration and consumption data, and comparison of the relative toxicity of the heavy metals is based on dose–response values found in the literature. The cumulative effects were assumed to be additive. The main contributors to kidney toxicity among the studied population groups were cadmium and lead, while lead was the main contributor to neurotoxic effects.     

Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using a multi-criteria outranking approach with application to heat stress in Sydney

Climate change vulnerability assessment is a complex form of risk assessment which accounts for both geophysical and socio-economic components of risk. In indicator-based vulnerability assessment (IBVA), indicators are used to rank the vulnerabilities of socio-ecological systems (SESs). The predominant aggregation approach in the literature, sometimes based on multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), typically builds a global-scale, utility function based on weighted summation, to generate rankings. However, the corresponding requirement for additive independence and complete knowledge of system interactions by analyst are rarely if ever satisfied in IBVA.We build an analogy between the structures of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and IBVA problems and show that a set of techniques called Outranking Methods, developed in MCDA to deal with criteria incommensurability, data uncertainty and preference imprecision, offer IBVA a sound alternative to additive or multiplicative aggregation. We reformulate IBVA problems within an outranking framework, define thresholds of difference and use an outranking method, ELECTRE III, to assess the relative vulnerability to heat stress of 15 local government areas in metropolitan Sydney. We find that the ranking outcomes are robust and argue that an outranking approach is better suited for assessments characterized by a mix of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative indicators, threshold effects and uncertainties about the exact relationships between indicators and vulnerability.     

The need for biological assessment of water quality: Australian perspective

Abstract Biological assessment of water quality in Australia is entering a stage of rapid development largely because of the inclusion of biological indicators in water quality guidelines and growing concern for ecological values. Approaches to water quality assessment include toxicity testing, use of biomarkers and several methods using community structure. For assessment diverse organisms such as fish, algae and (the most commonly used) macro-invertebrates are used. Interaction of data analysis with methods of data collection requires co-ordinated research on both fronts. Recent developments in the use of multivariate statistics to produce models for predicting water quality are likely to be useful in Australia. Much innovative work is still needed in Australia on the use of algae and fish, defining tolerance categories and establishing monitoring programmes performed in time-frames equivalent to those in use for physical and chemical methods.     

The impact of hybrids between genetically modified crop plants and their related species: introgression and weediness

Assessing the impact of hybrids between transgenic plants and nontarget wild species involves answering several questions such as: (i) what are the hybridization and introgression rates; (ii) what is the behaviour of a transgene in a wild population; and (iii) what will be the consequences of the expression of a transgene in a wild population? These issues are discussed using results from experiments on oilseed rape and wild related Brassiceae. Evidence is given of large variations in the estimates of cross-fertilization probabilities. The first stage of introgression into wild populations is demonstrated to occur spontaneously through back-crossing. Population analysis may also be valuable to detect traces of past introgression. Data from the literature on weed biology, and especially herbicide resistance, are used to illustrate the behaviour of a new gene in weed populations. The need for computer models simulating the introgression process is stressed.     

A new index to sort estuarine sediments according to their contaminant content

When dealing with potentially contaminated regions, simple tools are needed to identify in a fast and first approach the areas of the highest concern. In this work we propose a new, intuitive, easy-to-use and versatile tool to accomplish this task. This tool comprises the calculation of a new cumulative index, the Normalised-and-Weighted Average Concentration (NWAC) and its visualisation on a map of the area investigated using a colour based code. The NWAC is a cumulative index that is calculated for each sample using the concentration of freely selected contaminants present in that sample. The NWACs can be used to sort samples in a scale from 0 to 10 according to their contaminant content. A colour-based visualisation of the NWACs on a map facilitates an easy identification of the areas of higher concern within the studied region. The methodology has been exemplified in a case study, for example, the estuary of the Nerbioi-Ibaizabal River (Bilbao, Basque Country) using a representative set of sediments and their metals and metalloids content. The NWAC values obtained have been compared to the corresponding values of mERMq, another cumulative index of general acceptance and frequently used to estimate the toxicity of sediments, with comparable results.     

重庆市生态风险预警等级划分及演化趋势模拟

生态风险预警等级评估和演化趋势模拟，可为生态风险管理提供可靠的辅助决策。以重庆市为研究对象，基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应模型，构建重庆市生态风险预警指标体系，采用正态云模型和集对分析法，定量分析重庆市生态风险时空分异特征和演化趋势。研究结果表明：（1）2013-2019年，重庆市生态风险值呈"上升-下降"的波动趋势，综合生态风险隶属于重警等级，生态风险综合值从0.295下降到0.278，生态环境逐年好转；（2）重庆市生态风险有下降、不变、先上升后降低、先降低后上升以及一直升高5种演化趋势，分别占比39%、16%、5%、21%、24%；（3）重庆市生态风险转移分为两个方向，2013-2016年生态风险空间分异性增大，中警、轻警和无警风险等级不断向东北、东南和西部四周分散转移；2016-2019年生态风险分布格局变化较小，重警风险区在东部聚集；（4）演化趋势模拟结果表明，未来重庆市生态风险降低的区县有13个，占比34%，生态环境有向好发展的趋势；生态风险上升的区县有25个，占比66%，生态环境会有所恶化，但是恶化程度较低。将生态风险等级划分与预警演化趋势相结合，能为城市生态风险管理提供科学依据。     

Chronobiology of Coronary Risk Markers in Greenland Eskimos: A Comparative Study with Caucasians Residing in the Same Arctic Area

We report a comparison of fibrinolytic variables between 10 Caucasians on a predominantly European diet and 10 Greenland Eskimos on a traditional Inuit diet containing a substantial amount of fish and sea animals. We studied the diurnal variation in tissue type plasminogen activator (t-PA) and plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI) antigens and activities during a 24-h period. Blood samples were taken every 4 h. The variations of the sinusoidal curves were evaluated by the Friedman χ² test. t-PA and PAI-1 antigen in plasma fluctuated significantly during the 24 h (Eskimos p < 0.000007 and p < 0.0007; Caucasians p < 0.00003 and p < 0.02), with a peak in the early morning and a nadir in the afternoon. This also held true for PA1 activity (Eskimos p < 0.0008; Caucasians p < O.Ol), whereas t-PA activity showed an inverse but still significant pattern (Eskimos p < 0.006; Caucasians p < 0.0008). Amplitudes, areas underneath, and overall medians of the sinusoidal curves did not deviate between the two groups with respect to t-PA and PAL In contrast to the significant variation of t-PA and PAI, the plasma concentrations of fibrin degradation products (D-Dimer), a measure of effective fibrinolysis, remained constant during the 24 h, and the absolute differences between groups did not reach statistical significance. These findings suggest that circadian variation of fibrinolytic activators and inhibitors is a basic biologic phenomenon, which is not affected by life-style, dietary habits, or ethnic differences. Furthermore, the lack of diurnal variation in D-Dimer raises the question of whether there is a causal relationship between low morning activities of t-PA and the frequent onset of myocardial infarction at that time of day, as suggested by several authors.